Some analysts think that the "reconciliation" strategy is just a ruse; instead, if the House passes the Senate version of the bill, then Obama will just sign it into law (despite promises to Congressional Democrats to the contrary), declare "victory", and move onto other issues:
Wall Street Journal, "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, ObamaCare"
Susan Anne Hiller, "The House Vote on the Senate Healthcare Bill Is the Final Vote; Obama Will Sign It Into Law"
Phil Kerpen, "Forget Reconciliation -- Why the Real Fight Is In the House"
Such a move by the President would leave the Democratic Congressmen on the hook for having voted for all the provisions of the Senate Bill, including the Cornhusker Kickback, as well as the broader bad plans for mandatory insurance and draconian controls on private insurance, despite their personal misgivings.
If you wish to tell your Congressman what you think, you can contact him or her at:
Other analysts are essentially saying that the odds of ObamaCare passing are 50-50. In other words, neither victory nor defeat are a slam dunk.
For details of the various procedural and political convolutions and machinations, see:
Keith Hennessey, "Health Care Reform CPR".
Nate Silver, "Is Obamacare a Favorite to Pass?"
Brian Schwartz also covers the Intrade betting market on ObamaCare.
Buckle your seat belts! It's going to get real interesting now...